Evidence Not Favoring A Q4 Rally

Worsening breadth & sentiment leaves the weight of the evidence heavily tilted toward risk

Key Takeaway: The consensus view is that equities are poised to benefit from fourth quarter tendencies toward strength and that the bias for stocks into year-end is higher. No doubt, seasonal patterns are having their day in the sun. But to quote Bernard Baruch, “Something that everyone knows isn’t worth anything.” The weight of the evidence argues for waiting for a better balance between risk and opportunity before getting more involved with stocks.      

Hi Mount Research subscribers can keep reading and take a closer look the Macro and Market factors that guide our perspective.