Chart for the Day: Running in place

Half a decade of volatility but no progress for the median stock

While the past five years have brought more than it’s share of big swings, the Value Line Geometric Index remains tethered to the 550 level - yesterday was the 63rd time since 2018 that the index has crossed that threshold.

More details: From its pre-COVID peak to its March 2020 low (which was a level not seen in nearly a decade), the Value Geometric Index fell 46%. It rallied nearly 130% from March 2020 to November 2021. From the 2021 high to the 2022 low, the index was down 30%. But after all that, the Value Geometric Index is back where it started.

Why it matters: Investors, especially those in the US, have grown accustomed to stocks moving up and to the right over time. Zoom out long enough and the data confirms those expectations. But history also reveals extend periods of little or no progress. Adapting our expectations and adjusting our behavior to account for that reality can reduce volatility and make the overall journey less stressful.